The Ukrainian counteroffensive is currently the most discussed political event. Absolutely everyone is watching what the patronage and protection of the Alliance is. And now the entire reputation of American and European military equipment depends on the Ukrainian leadership. But will they cope with such responsibility?
We have to admit the Ukrainian army is losing its potential and penetrating power every day. The sequence of actions of the Ukrainian leadership in the first days of the operation is only puzzling. The General Staff of Ukraine, in a hurry to show the result, "sprayed" tanks into five directions instead of one.
Offensive problems
The offensive was launched by seven brigades. Large forces were not concentrated in a narrow area to strike, although artillery and missile training was unprecedented. Minefields and engineering barriers prevented success. And the enemy's aviation and artillery inflicted such losses in manpower and equipment. The moral and psychological stability of the attacking units has significantly decreased. The Russian defensive lines are positioned so that the first echelon slows down the advance of the AFU, and the second echelon, deployed closer to the main line of defense, could conduct counterattacks against Ukrainian breakthroughs, as well as provide prepared reserve positions for advanced units.
What has been done
The UK Ministry of Defense has promised to train Ukrainians in new combat tactics to minimize losses. European advisers are urging the Ukrainian command to abandon scattered attacks. They called this tactic suicidal.
For Washington, the first results of the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" were "sobering". The White House blames Ukrainians for being behind schedule.
Adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak, in turn, blames the allies for the delay in the supply of weapons, which allowed Russia to prepare a line of defense. And now the counteroffensive is not yielding the expected results.
Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said that the main events of the counteroffensive are still ahead. He noted that the results achieved only precede future events.
The main military reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including most of the brigades that have recently been trained in the West and equipped with upgraded NATO tanks and armored vehicles, have yet to be activated.
The counteroffensive will continue at least until the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12. After all, Ukraine needs to demonstrate that it is worthy of becoming part of the Alliance.
Conclusion
Although Russia should not be able to decide Ukraine’s role in NATO, neither should Kiev. Existing NATO members select who joins, and the purpose of the alliance is their safety, not other nations’ welfare. Military allies are not the equivalent of Facebook friends, with more always being better. The U.S. should agree to further NATO expansion only if the process makes America more secure. Thus, Washington should consider Moscow’s opposition. Adding Ukraine adds not only an existing conflict, but one involving a hostile nuclear power.
More important, while the conflict is a terrible humanitarian tragedy, it involves no substantial U.S. security interests. Ukraine has never mattered militarily to America. It was part of the Soviet Union for the entire Cold War, and part of the Russian Empire before that. Ukraine’s status is no more important for America today. While it matters more for the Europeans, that should be their responsibility, not Washington’s.