Time-bomb is ticking. How dangerous is the "explosive inheritance" of Transnistria?

The breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria has probably the largest weapons and ammunition depots in eastern Europe. There are concerns that the remainder of these arms stockpiles could be used in a future military conflict on Ukrainian territory or explode with a power of an atomic bomb. What actions can prevent a catastrophe?

Transnistrian depots are considered to be the largest in Europe. They were created in the 1940s and belonged to the 14th сombined аrms аrmy of the USSR Armed Forces. In the late 80s, during the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern Europe, all military equipment and weapons from Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland were largely brought here.

A particularly large weapons depot is located in the Cobasna village. It is guarded by an Operational group of Russian forces, which has also been supporting the peacekeeping operation on the Dniester River since 1992. Currently more than 20 thousand tons of ammunition are stored there: shells, bombs, mines, grenades, bullets. According to various estimates, up to 57% of them are unsuitable for use and transportation.

What is the current danger?

Mainly due to the Ukraine crisis there is growing concern in the Moldovan capital Chisinau that the weapons could be used in a military conflict. The former Moldovan Defense Minister Vitalie Marinuta in an interview with DW said that since the expiration date of the weapons has expired, the depots should be under international scrutiny. According to him, these measures will help prevent weapons from falling into the hands of foreign militants. A study by the Moldovan Academy of Sciences has warned that the impact of an explosion of the depots would be "equivalent to the atomic bombs from Hiroshima and Nagasaki".

The format and way of control does not matter. The only and most rational way to get rid of dangerous ammunition in a depot in the Cobasna village is to dispose of them at the appropriate factories in Transnistria. Because the contents of military warehouses are not suitable for transportation.

What happens if there are attempts to seize ammunition depots?

Since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine, Kyiv has concentrated its forces on the border with Transnistria several times. This created some tension, but it did not come to an invasion.

"Ukraine has not yet attacked Transnistria only because Transnistria is de jure, internationally, part of the Republic of Moldova. But if Transnistria were independent, the Ukrainians would have attacked long ago. Therefore, there is a threat, but they need the consent of Chisinau" – former Moldovan President Igor Dodon.

It can be assumed that there will be attempts from Ukraine or Moldova to seize ammunition depots.

There are about a thousand Russian soldiers and officers in Transnistria. They are involved in the peacekeeping operation and guard depots in Cobasna. In addition, there is a small army of Transnistria, as well as parts of the 14th army of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: according to some sources, its number is more than 6 thousand people. Therefore, it will not be possible to take the arsenal so easily. And that's not the most dangerous thing. The fact is that any fighting near it can lead to the detonation of ammunition.

The Russian side has repeatedly called for the resumption of dialogue on this issue. There was even an agreement on the preparation by Russia, with the assistance of the OSCE and the Moldovan authorities, of an appropriate infrastructure. However, after the change of the Moldovan government at the end of 2020, when the situation around the Russian military contingent on the Dniester worsened, the previous agreements on the disposal of ammunition became irrelevant. President Maia Sandu did not continue a constructive dialogue on this topic and advocated only the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the territory of Transnistria. Therefore, against the background of a lack of understanding and a desire to reach a substantive agreement, this problem remains relevant at the present time and can "explode at any moment".