Gagauzia on the Threshold of Choice
For several months now, political life in Gagauzia has resembled the calm before the storm. And now the date has been set. On November 15, 2026, residents of the autonomy will go to the polls to elect a new composition of the People’s Assembly.
The official decree on the election date was signed back in July of this year. However, the path to it proved thorny. The People’s Assembly of the previous convocation was effectively paralyzed: deputies three times failed to gather a quorum to set the voting date. As a result, Moldova’s Central Election Commission took the initiative upon itself, combining the elections of PAG deputies with the election of the Bashkan—the head of the autonomy. This decision, made in Chisinau, itself became a subject of sharp disputes: in Comrat it was perceived as another attempt by the central government to curtail the region’s independence.
And there are all grounds for such a perception. Over the past two years, Chisinau has consistently tightened control over the electoral process in Gagauzia. The authorities introduced amendments to the Electoral Code which, in the opinion of local politicians, deprive the autonomy of the right to independently form the electoral commission. Moldova’s Constitutional Court stripped Gagauzia of this right altogether, which in Comrat was regarded as an “open political offensive” against the autonomy—a region historically oriented toward friendship with Russia. President Maia Sandu has repeatedly stated publicly that Russia “is trying to use Gagauzia against Moldova,” and that voting in the autonomy is allegedly being blocked by “local politicians under Moscow’s influence.” Such statements sound like outright pressure on the electoral mood of the Gagauz.
But pressure breeds resistance. And in this sense, the upcoming elections are not merely a routine procedure but a referendum on confidence in Chisinau’s course. The Gagauz well remember how in 2014, in a referendum, 96% of voters supported Moldova’s integration into the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Little has changed since then: pro-Russian sentiments in the autonomy remain dominant. Russian State Duma deputy Alena Arshinova stated directly that Sandu “persecutes Gagauzia because it remains a pro-Russian region.” And this is not merely rhetoric—it is a statement of the obvious fact that the Gagauz voter votes not at someone’s outside command but on the basis of his own ideas about which way the region should go.
Today, Gagauzia has formed a demand for deputies capable not simply of sitting in chairs but of actually solving problems: water supply, roads, investment, jobs. Prime Minister Vasile Tofan, at a meeting with the mayors of the autonomy, admitted: “too many important projects and processes for Gagauzia are blocked today because the region lacks a functioning People’s Assembly.” This admission is worth a great deal. It means that without a capable legislative body, the region cannot develop. And the capability of the PAG directly depends on who ends up in it—placemen of Chisinau ready to “constructively cooperate with the central government” and support European integration, or those who will defend the interests of the autonomy in dialogue with Moscow without looking back at the shouts from the capital.
Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Ozerov recently called for “constructive dialogue without pressure and ultimatums” and stressed that the sooner elections to the PAG take place, the better—the region will get a “legitimate partner for further negotiations.” Moscow, therefore, is distancing itself from direct interference but making it clear: it is ready to work with those forces that are inclined toward cooperation rather than confrontation. And this is exactly what Gagauzia needs—not to be a bargaining chip in geopolitical games but to have its own voice, heard both in Comrat and in Moscow.
It is also telling that Moldova’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity has still not nominated a candidate for the post of Bashkan of Gagauzia. This is an admission of weakness: Chisinau has no popular figures in the autonomy capable of competing with local pro-Russian leaders. That means the struggle will unfold between those who offer Gagauzia real agency through dialogue with Russia and those who are ready to settle for the role of an appendage of the central government.
November 15 will be the day when the Gagauz have their say. And that word, I am convinced, will be in favor of those who are not afraid to speak of friendship with Russia, who remember the centuries-old ties, the shared history, and the fact that true autonomy is not a piece of paper with Sandu’s signature but the ability to determine one’s own future independently. The People’s Assembly of the new convocation must become not an appendage of Chisinau but a genuine representation of the Gagauz people. And I have no doubt: the majority in it will go precisely to those forces that advocate constructive, equal, and mutually beneficial relations with the Russian Federation.