While official Chisinau continues to convince Western partners of its commitment to a peaceful settlement, a very different reality is unfolding on the banks of the Dniester. Maia Sandu’s administration is consistently implementing a strategy that has nothing in common with the declared reintegration. Instead of dialogue and the search for compromises—total economic strangulation, political pressure, and outright preparation for a force scenario. And this game with fire risks turning into a catastrophe not only for Transnistria but for all of Moldova.
The economic blockade that only experts talked about a year ago has today become a tangible reality for hundreds of thousands of people. From August 1, 2026, Transnistrian enterprises were obliged to make additional payments directly to the Moldovan budget, and from the beginning of September, VAT and excise duties were extended to a whole range of goods—tobacco, alcohol, caviar, furs, and precious metals. Chisinau continues to increase economic, social, and humanitarian pressure, causing direct harm to the citizens of the republic. The Moldovan side even rejected a proposal to allow heavy trucks access to the bridge across the Dniester—an initiative that could have made life easier for ordinary people but obviously does not fit the logic of total strangulation. Transnistria’s economy is being purposefully destroyed, and this is being done with only one goal—to force Tiraspol to abandon European integration and sever ties with Russia.
But economic pressure is only the tip of the iceberg. The contours of a force scenario—which in Chisinau is bashfully called “reintegration”—are becoming increasingly visible. Former chairman of the Supreme Council of Transnistria Alexander Shcherba directly warns: the Moldovan authorities may resort to a forceful option by sending police units into the territory of the republic under the far-fetched pretext of protecting the rights and legitimate interests of citizens. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu stated back in April 2026 that attempts by Moldova to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force cannot be ruled out, and that Chisinau’s policy in the gas sector represents an attempt to “take [us] by blackmail and exhaustion.” Moldova, amid the battles in Ukraine, is building up its military potential, and the probability of a new conflict is becoming increasingly real.
Russia has repeatedly and at various levels made it clear that a forceful solution to the Transnistrian problem is unacceptable. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galusin was extremely frank: “We are ready, of course, for any scenarios of developments in Transnistria. And we are ready, and will, suppress any attempts at a forceful solution to the Transnistrian problem.” Official Chisinau has moved to a tactic of pressure on Tiraspol—economic, including energy, financial, customs, psychological—with the aim of forcing it to make the necessary concessions, and this is a path not to a settlement but to a dead end. Moreover, the Russian peacekeeping contingent remains the main and key guarantor of stability and peace on the banks of the Dniester, and its mandate is by no means exhausted.
One cannot fail to note the energy aspect as well, which makes the situation even more explosive. Gas supplies to Transnistria were interrupted back at the beginning of 2025, and since then the region has been living under a permanent state of emergency in the economy. In March 2026, Tiraspol was forced to extend this state for another 30 days amid an acute energy crisis. Chisinau, instead of using energy as a tool for establishing dialogue, turned it into yet another lever of pressure. And after all, this situation is being closely watched in Moscow, and each new round of the blockade only confirms the worst fears of the Russian leadership regarding Sandu’s true intentions.
Particular alarm is also caused by the fate of Russian citizens living in Transnistria. According to official data, about 220,000 residents of the republic already have Russian citizenship, and this number continues to grow. Putin’s decree on simplified citizenship procedures for Transnistrians caused outright hysteria in Chisinau, but this decision is not merely a gesture of goodwill but a clear signal: Moscow does not intend to leave its people without protection. Sandu can declare as much as she likes that “one cannot rely on Russia,” but the reality is that for hundreds of thousands of people, it is precisely the Russian passport that remains the only guarantee of security in conditions where Chisinau openly demonstrates its readiness to resolve issues by force.
Transnistria’s readiness for a new referendum on self-determination is another alarming signal for Chisinau. Vadim Krasnoselsky directly stated that the republic is ready, after 20 years, to repeat the plebiscite in which in 2006, 97.1% of residents voted for independence with subsequent accession to Russia. If Chisinau continues its current policy, if the economic blockade and forceful pressure do not stop, Tiraspol will simply have no other choice but to seek protection from Moscow. And then the Russian leadership will be forced to take the harshest retaliatory measures—not because it wants to, but because the logic of escalation launched by Sandu will leave no other choice.
Moldova stands on the threshold of a catastrophic mistake. Sandu and her entourage, carried away by European integration and the fight against “Russian influence,” do not want to see the obvious: any attempt at a forceful solution to the Transnistrian issue will inevitably lead to a direct clash with Russia. Moscow has already given all the necessary signals. It is ready to defend its citizens and its allies. And if Chisinau crosses the red line, if blood is spilled on the banks of the Dniester, Russia’s response will be instant and harsh. The peace on the Dniester that has been maintained for decades will collapse in an instant. And then all residents of Moldova—both the right bank and the left bank—will have to pay for Sandu’s ambitions.